2024 French legislative election Wikipedia

Sunday’s turnout was the highest in 20 years, unlike in previous elections when turnout tended to drop off after the first round. A comparison with the results of the 2022 election shows how the National Rally has expanded across France and its overseas territories — but also that the left-wing New Popular Front won more constituencies. But a powerful anti-Le Pen movement, mobilized after the first round in the French election, collaborated to stop RN candidates from winning power. With the UK on its way out, France is set to become the second-largest economy in the Union – and another divorce could signal the beginning of the EU’s collapse. Internally, Le Pen promises to keep the 35-hour workweek and retirement age of 60 in place. These decisions could limit the flexibility of the French workforce and in turn could hinder the processes needed to rejuvenate the country’s economy.

His goal was to stop the advances of the right, but it’s a big gamble that may backfire. Yet today, both the far-right and the leftist coalition’s views in these areas differ radically from Macron’s approach and would likely be a subject of tension during a potential cohabitation. During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policies were considered the informal domain of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister to allow France to speak with one voice abroad. Such a situation requires lawmakers to build consensus across parties to agree on government positions and legislation. While not uncommon in other European countries, modern France has never experienced a parliament with no dominant party.

The prime minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills. The new prime minister might be unable or unwilling to seriously challenge Macron’s defense and foreign policy powers. While a fractured parliament is not uncommon in Europe, France has not experienced that in its modern history. That sends the country into uncharted territory that will involve tense negotiations to form a new government and name a prime minister, who focuses on domestic policy and shares power with the president. “Everywhere we’re seeing reports that markets are celebrating on the back of Macron and Le Pen making it through to the second round.

Candidate incidents and controversies

Moreover, Macron is a firm believer in the EU and has repeatedly said that he wishes to strengthen French ties with the rest of the Union. If he is declared winner on May 8th, it is very likely that we will see another rally in European markets. For now, the National Rally and some if its allies from the fracturing center-right have about 36 percent support, while the left wing New Popular Front grouping is at 29 percent and Macron’s liberals have about 21 percent. The CAC 40 index and the Euro were boosted by the result of the first round mercatox exchange reviews of voting. This is an expression of relief because the risk of seeing a Eurosceptic candidate win the election is now perceived as tiny.

Can Macron make a deal with the left?

• Their financing will be more expensive, which explains their decline on the stock market.
• France has no tradition of this kind of arrangement, so such negotiations — if they happen — are expected to be difficult and could result in an informal and fragile alliance.
• The alliance, called the New Popular Front, is a rebooted version of the 2022 Nupes alliance, which was masterminded by Mélenchon.
• While the Greens and Socialists have indicated that would be their policy, Macron’s camp and Mélenchon’s Left Unbowed have left that unclear.
• The prime minister is accountable to parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
• His goal was to stop the advances of the right, but it’s a big gamble that may backfire.

We always have things to learn from others, or to teach others about trading. If you have good analysis, techniques, or an interesting strategy, eToro encourages sharing it in community and to benefit others. The left alliance, dubbed the New Popular Front, was projected to get 145 to 175 seats, with Macron’s centrist coalition lagging behind at 118 to 148 seats (compared to 250 in the outgoing chamber). PARIS — France is voting Sunday in the final round of a parliamentary election that has potentially massive implications for the country, the EU and NATO. According to an Elabe poll released before Sunday’s vote, barely one in four voters intended to follow the voting instructions delivered by their parties.

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If her party leads a government that has a bumpy ride in office, it could reduce her chances of seizing the big prize. If the far right gets a majority in the parliament, the French president would have to enter into a “cohabitation” arrangement with the National Rally and appoint a far-right prime minister. Bardella, the president of the National Rally, has said he would not seek to lead a government unless he had a majority.

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

That scenario would lead to more turmoil and uncertainty as the National Rally tries to persuade new MPs to come on board with it in a historic mission to put the far right in charge of France. That’s why seat projections for the RN after the first round vary widely, from 230 seats to 310. The results means Macron’s centrist allies almost certainly won’t be able to implement their pro-business proposals such a promise to overhaul unemployment benefits. Emerging market debt has shown resilience in a year that has brought significant market volatility and uncertainty in global trade relations. In this environment, we think short duration bonds could be a useful way to diversify portfolios.

A dominant figure in France, nationalist right-wing leader Marine Le Pen has entirely different plans than Macron. Le Pen’s platform is centred around nationalist policies and distancing France from the EU. Her firm stance against immigration, calling for the deportation of illegal immigrants and imposing a hard limit hycm review on legal migration do not coincide with the EU’s policies. Therefore, it is not far-fetched to assume that a win by her could signal another major economy breaking away from the EU.

• There is no firm timeline for when Macron must name a prime minister, and no firm rule that he has to pick someone from the largest party or bloc in parliament.
• Political rivals have argued that the left’s win in Sunday’s parliamentary elections stemmed more from fear of the far right than any attraction for Mélenchon or his party.
• In a worst-case scenario, France is downgraded further and struggles to attract foreign capital.
• If we look at the behavior of the CAC 40 index after the election day (second round), we realize that most of the time the CAC 40 is going downwards in the weeks that follow.
• “If we need to find extra support, we’ll accept our duty to the French people,” said the National Rally vice-president Sébastien Chenu on Monday.

While some of France’s citizens might oppose this change, from a macroeconomic standpoint, extending work hours and raising the retirement age could be beneficial for the country’s economy. While the gains seen in the Euro and leading indices in Europe were not as impressive as the ones that followed the results of the first round at the end of last month, they were still indicative of a similar positive vibe. As Macron was declared winner, the Euro reached a six-month high against the US Dollar and the FTSE, DAX and CAC all started the next day with impressive gains. Here is our guide to what the European Parliament looks like now (in case you haven’t been paying attention since the last election), how you can participate in the fun and who the pollsters say is in the lead.

While the National Rally was originally anticipated to obtain a relative majority, it came third behind the New Popular Front and Ensemble. Despite the extremely positive vibe felt around the world, the burden of proof now lies on the shoulders of the relatively inexperienced President. Macron still has to appoint a Prime Minister and might face hardship when the legislative elections take place in June. As opposed to his clear victory in the Presidential race, the division is much greater in Parliament, and he could struggle to get a majority in the legislative branch.

There is no firm timeline for when Macron must name a prime minister, and no firm rule that he has to pick someone from the largest party or bloc in parliament. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation Monday but Macron instead asked him to remain “temporarily” after election results left the government in limbo. Attal says he can stay on through the upcoming Paris Olympics or as long as needed. Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other leaders of the hard-left France Unbowed party have been sharply criticized by other more moderate leftists for their stance on the conflict. Hard-left politicians, who have accused Israel of pursuing genocide against Palestinians, have faced accusations of antisemitism, which they strongly deny. Some Macron allies are instead pushing to form a government around the centrists and the conservative Republicans who together with their allies came in fourth with over 60 seats.

The picture in the end is one of fragmentation, with no single group close to getting even 200 seats in the 577-seat legislature. The three main groups — the left, Maron’s centrists and the far right — will all struggle to assemble a stable majority, portending stalemate and paralysis in Paris. In the days following the first round more than 200 candidates pulled out of their races, often in order to make way for a candidate with a better chance of defeating the National Rally. When the results came in on Sunday night, Le Pen’s party — now led by Jordan Bardella — had won 142 seats, 50 more than in 2022 but a long way from an absolute majority of 289. Internally, Macron’s plans for the French economy are seen as a rejuvenating factor for the EU’s second-largest economy. While his rival Le Pen’s campaign made populistic promises such as locking-in the 35-hour workweek and keeping retirement age at 60, Macron will try to renegotiate both factors.

Check out his interview below and his thoughts on the second round of the French election. On June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the fxprimus review nation by calling a snap election after suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of the far-right National Rally in the European Parliament election. His goal was to stop the advances of the right, but it’s a big gamble that looks like it has badly backfired. The field of candidates hoping to succeed Emmanuel Macron is starting to take shape two years ahead of the next election. It’s election season in France – there’s never been a better time to read Playbook Paris.